Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has projected that Baba Jamal’s support in the Ayawaso East NDC parliamentary primary is unlikely to exceed 38%, citing recent polling data and prevailing voter trends within the constituency.
Polling Data Shows Clear Lead for Hajia Amina Adam
According to the projection, Hajia Amina Adam, widow of the late Member of Parliament for Ayawaso East, Mahama Naser Toure, is firmly in the lead with an estimated 54% support ahead of the polls scheduled for Saturday, February 7. The analysis suggests a significant gap between the two leading contenders, making a dramatic late shift in voter preference highly improbable.
Margin of Error Still Leaves Race One-Sided
Mr Dankwah explained that the forecast carries a margin of error of approximately 3.2%, which still leaves Hajia Amina Adam comfortably ahead even at the narrowest end of the statistical range. “Based on that, I project Hajia to win with about 54%, while Baba Jamal’s highest share will be around 38%,” he stated.
NDC Members Reject Calls to Bar Hajia from Contesting
Detailing further findings, Mr Dankwah revealed that 66% of NDC members polled disagreed with claims that it was wrong for Hajia Amina Adam to contest the primary, while 58% of delegates also rejected the notion. “This means both the delegates and the party faithful disagree with that call, suggesting that some people are pushing a narrative that is not selling in Ayawaso,” he said.
Ayawaso East Dynamics Misjudged
He concluded that the internal dynamics of the Ayawaso East constituency appear to have been miscalculated by some stakeholders, as voter sentiment remains strongly aligned with Hajia Amina Adam’s candidacy, reinforcing her commanding lead going into the decisive vote. Read more political updates on GhanaMedia.net.
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