Ghana’s economy is facing a fresh test of its foreign exchange resilience as elevated global oil prices and rising shipping costs linked to tensions in the Middle East threaten to push up the country’s import bill.
Standard Bank has reportedly revised downward its projection for Ghana’s 2026 current account surplus by approximately $1 billion, with higher petroleum import costs emerging as a major source of pressure. Ghana remains particularly exposed to changes in global energy prices because the country imports significantly more petroleum than it exports.
According to Jibran Qureishi, Head of Africa Regions Economics Research at Standard Bank, the bank had initially projected that Ghana could record a current account surplus of about $5 billion in 2026. However, the outlook has now been revised downward by approximately $1 billion amid concerns over rising oil prices.
Despite the expected deterioration, Ghana is still projected to maintain a current account surplus rather than fall into deficit, offering some reassurance about the country’s external economic position.
Oil prices emerge as major risk to Ghana
Ghana’s dependence on imported petroleum remains one of its key vulnerabilities. At an oil price of around $65 per barrel, petroleum imports are estimated to represent approximately 29% of total goods imports, with the share potentially increasing significantly if global crude prices rise towards the $90 to $95 per barrel range.
The country, however, has relatively limited direct exposure to some Middle Eastern supply chains. According to the analysis, only about 6% of Ghana’s fertilizer imports originate from the United Arab Emirates, while much of the country’s fertilizer supply comes from Russia and Italy. Ghana’s cocoa exports are also considered to have limited direct exposure to the region.
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Cedi and forex market under pressure
The foreign exchange market is also facing renewed pressure. Standard Bank estimates a dollar backlog of approximately $1 billion, while the cedi has been trading around GH¢11.65 to GH¢11.70 against the US dollar in the spot market, according to the report.
The research team expects the exchange rate could approach the GH¢12.00 level before potentially recovering as new measures designed to improve foreign exchange liquidity take effect.
The Bank of Ghana has been pursuing reforms to its foreign exchange operations as authorities seek to improve liquidity, reduce volatility and strengthen access to hard currency. The central bank’s broader monetary policy framework includes forward foreign exchange operations intended to improve price discovery and reduce pressure on the spot market.
The Bank of Ghana currently lists its Monetary Policy Rate at 14%, reflecting the significant easing in monetary conditions since 2025. However, the Standard Bank analysis suggests that renewed inflationary risks from higher fuel and food prices could encourage policymakers to maintain a more cautious stance for the remainder of the year.
Ghana faces rising external debt repayments
Another major challenge is Ghana’s external debt repayment schedule. External debt amortisation is projected to rise from approximately $960 million in 2025 to $2.3 billion in 2026 before climbing further to $3.2 billion in 2027.
These obligations could place additional pressure on Ghana’s foreign exchange reserves and limit the government’s fiscal flexibility, even as the country continues efforts to strengthen its macroeconomic position.
According to the Standard Bank analysis, Ghana’s foreign exchange reserves stood at approximately $13.9 billion as of April 2026. The report suggests that maintaining fiscal discipline will remain critical as debt repayments increase and external risks persist.
Qureishi argued that the coming years will be an important test of Ghana’s ability to demonstrate lasting economic credibility to international investors, particularly as the country moves towards the 2028 election cycle.
While Ghana has made progress in restoring macroeconomic stability, rising oil prices, pressure on the cedi, foreign exchange demand and growing external debt repayments show that significant risks remain. The ability of policymakers to preserve fiscal discipline and maintain investor confidence could ultimately determine how successfully the economy withstands the latest global shocks.
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